Bitcoin/USD daily basis
Bitcoin USD – New highs since March crash
At the beginning of the reporting week, Bitcoin tested the zone just below the USD 10,000 mark. With higher lows, the price touched the psychological mark. After another failure in the middle of the week, Bitcoin was rejected, leading the share price back up to USD 8’700. The three following days and the end of the week were marked by a consolidation around the USD 9’000 mark. Despite the renewed failure at USD 10,000, the week can be described as a consolidation below the historical resistance zone.
Advancing to well-known resistances in micro and macro trends
Bitcoin established a veritable countermovement after its price slump in mid-March. This led up to the resistance zones around USD 10,000 (red). This was followed by an initial rejection, which brought the price back to the 200-day average (1), just over USD 8,000. In the meantime, two further attempts to climb up to the area above the USD 10,000 level have failed.
The resistance zone around USD 10,000 is interesting in several respects. Firstly, the 0.618 Fibonacci point (2) of the entire downward movement, which was heralded at the end of June 2019 just below USD 14,000, is located here. On the other hand, the zone around USD 10,000 simultaneously functions as a confirmation of the still bearish trend of lower highs since December 2017 (see next section).
In order not to damage the recent positive picture, zones below USD 8,000 should not be visited more often. This is where the 200-day average (1) and a trend line of the respective micro-trend lows are located. The area is also relevant in the weekly interval; here the USD 8,100 marks the low of the previous week’s candle. Otherwise, the chances of a further attempt to break through the USD 10,000 mark in the near future remain intact.
Support is in the area below just below USD 9,000, and at USD 8,200. The positive structure of the micro-trend is guaranteed as long as Bitcoin can hold above the 7’500 – 7’700 USD zone (green). The level around 7’000 USD should serve as a last support before the positive structure suffers lasting damage.
Macro: On the threshold of a trend reversal
Bitcoin has so far failed to set a higher high in the weekly interval, which would have broken the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. In its last attempt since the beginning of the year, the upward trend in the relevant zone at around USD 10,500 failed to establish itself. The countermovement that began in mid-March after the sharp price correction brings the price once again to the trend line, which is the result of the lower highs since the end of 2017.
If the negative macro picture is to be broken, the tendency of lower highs since 2017 must be sustainably overcome. This can be legitimized with several weekly candles above the USD 10,000 mark in order to rule out false outbreaks such as those in July 2019. An establishment in the new range should take place in the coming weeks above the USD 7300-7500 zone, as well as above the 21-week average (1) in order not to cloud the new positive picture again.
Should a rejection below the USD 7,000 zone take place, support in the lower range of the macro trend is expected from the 200-week average (2) at USD 5,600, which has never been broken since its inception, and from the trend line (3) of the respective lows of the upward trend since March 2017.
Bitcoin has so far failed to set a higher high in the weekly interval, which would have broken the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. In its last attempt since the beginning of the year, the upward trend in the relevant zone at around USD 10,500 failed to establish itself. The countermovement that began in mid-March after the sharp price correction brings the price once again to the trend line, which is the result of the lower highs since the end of 2017.
If the negative macro picture is to be broken, the tendency of lower highs since 2017 must be sustainably overcome. This can be legitimized with several weekly candles above the USD 10,000 mark in order to rule out false outbreaks such as those in July 2019. An establishment in the new range should take place in the coming weeks above the USD 7300-7500 zone, as well as above the 21-week average (1) in order not to cloud the new positive picture again.
Should a rejection below the USD 7,000 zone take place, support in the lower range of the macro trend is expected from the 200-week average (2) at USD 5,600, which has never been broken since its inception, and from the trend line (3) of the respective lows of the upward trend since March 2017.
Disclaimer
All information in this publication is for general information purposes only. The information provided in this publication does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as such. This publication does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation for an investment in any financial instrument including crypto currencies and the like and is not intended as an offer, recommendation or solicitation. The contents contained in the publication represent the personal opinion of the respective authors and are not suitable or intended as a basis for a decision.
Notice of risk
Investments and investments, especially in crypto-currencies, are generally associated with risk. The total loss of the invested capital cannot be excluded. Crypto-currencies are very volatile and can therefore be subject to extreme exchange rate fluctuations within a short period of time.
*Originally published in German at CVJ.ch
