Bitcoin/USD tägliche Basis
Bitcoin USD – New highs since March crash
At the beginning of the reporting week, the Bitcoin price tested the resistance zone at around USD 7,600. On Monday and Tuesday it moved in very narrow trading ranges, slightly higher towards 7’800 USD. As a result, there was a strong rally on Wednesday, which took the price to the USD 9,000 mark. This was followed on Thursday, with a daily high of almost USD 9,500, another attempt to climb higher spheres. The clear rejection led the price, with a considerable daily bandwidth of almost USD 1,000, to fall back below the USD 9,000 mark at the end of the day. At the end of the week, the Bitcoin price was able to prove itself at its new level. This was followed by three trading days with smaller bandwidths with mostly higher lows and daily highs.
Advance to well-known resistances in the micro-and-macro trend
Bitcoin has now established a veritable countermovement after its price fall in mid-March. This failed for the time being due to the resistance zone formed by the grounding between November and January 2019 and earlier supports (red). In the reporting week, the price managed to break through this resistance. Since the 0.618 Fibonacci point (2) of the most recent correction was also breached, the thesis of a new bullish micro trend is strengthened against a simple countermovement of the correction. This thesis would now be further strengthened by a sustained movement above the 200-day moving average (1).
The most recent breakout in the reporting week led directly to the well-known resistance zone, which has repeatedly served as a support zone and resistance since June 2019 (red). Already after reaching the all-time high in December 2017, this zone served first as support and later as resistance, which confirmed the bearish trend with lower highs. Thus, we have now arrived at a significantly stronger resistance zone than the zone just breached at USD 7,600. There is another good reason for this – the macro trend. The zone below USD 10,000 is also a confirmation of the continuing bearish trend of lower highs since December 2017 (see next section).
The rally since the crash in mid-March is gaining legitimacy with the breakout above the resistance at USD 7,600. A rejection at the new resistances below the USD 10,000 mark is expected, as the daily RSI (3) also points to a short-term overbought situation. The zone 7’600 – 7800 USD serves as a new support zone (green) and should not be breached for the time being. Further support at $7’300 USD comes from resistances during the last 3 weeks as well as the lower trendline of the recent upward-trend.
Macro: Chronology of lower highs since the end of 2017
Bitcoin has so far failed to set a higher high in the weekly interval, which would have broken the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. In its last attempt since the beginning of the year, the upward trend in the relevant zone at around USD 10,500 failed to establish itself. The countermovement that began in mid-March after the sharp price correction brings the price once again to the trend line, which was created by the lower highs since the end of 2017.
If the negative macro picture is to be broken, the tendency of lower highs since 2017 must be sustainably overcome. This can be legitimized with several weekly candles above the USD 10,000 mark. For now, a consolidation in the space below this mark should be considered more sustainable than a direct breakthrough as seen in June and July 2019 and thus turned out to be a “false breakout”. An establishment in the new area should take place in the coming weeks above the USD 7300-7500 mark, as well as above the 21-week average (1) in order not to cloud the new positive picture again.
Should a rejection below the USD 7,000 mark take place, support in the lower range of the macro trend is expected from the 200-week average (2) at USD 5,6000, which has never been breached since its inception, and from the trend line (3) of the respective lows of the upward trend since March 2017.
All information in this publication is for general information purposes only. The information provided in this publication does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as such. This publication does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation for an investment in any financial instrument including crypto currencies and the like and is not intended as an offer, recommendation or solicitation. The contents contained in the publication represent the personal opinion of the respective authors and are not suitable or intended as a basis for a decision.
Notice of risk
Investments and investments, especially in crypto-currencies, are generally associated with risk. The total loss of the invested capital cannot be excluded. Crypto-currencies are very volatile and can therefore be subject to extreme exchange rate fluctuations within a short period of time.
*Originally published in German at CVJ.ch